Japan’s Ruling Coalition Collapses, Threatening Sanae Takaichi’s Path to Country’s First Female Prime Minister

Japan’s ruling coalition collapsed after Komeito, the long-time junior partner of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), announced its withdrawal, dealing a major blow to newly elected LDP leader Sanae Takaichi and casting doubt on her bid to become Japan’s first female prime minister, the Wall Street Journal reported. 

On Friday, Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito said his party was exiting from its long-running coalition with the LDP, citing the latter’s failure to commit to tightening campaign finance rules after last year’s funding scandal.  

He added that they would not support Takaichi in the parliamentary vote to select the next prime minister, scheduled for Oct. 15. 

The decision ends a 25-year alliance and leaves the LDP short of the 233-seat majority needed to confirm a new premier in the 465-seat lower house. 

Takaichi, 64, was elected LDP president earlier this month following the resignation of her predecessor, Shigeru Ishiba, in September. 

Ishiba stepped down after the party lost control of both parliamentary chambers in 2024 and 2025. A protégé of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi is a staunch conservative known for her nationalist views, her support for revising Japan’s pacifist constitution, and her calls to strengthen military capabilities.  

Her victory in the LDP race made her Japan’s first female party leader, but the collapse of the coalition now threatens to delay or derail her confirmation as prime minister. 

At a Friday press conference, Takaichi said she had asked Komeito for more time to study its proposals but that the party chose to withdraw. She must now negotiate with smaller opposition blocs to build a new governing majority.  

Analysts said an early election could be triggered if coalition talks fail. Still, others told CNBC that the LDP leader is on course to become Japan’s first female prime minister because opposition parties remain too fractured to vote for another candidate. 

The turmoil comes just weeks before a potential visit by US President Donald Trump, with whom Takaichi shares close ideological ties.  

The uncertainty, however, risks undermining Japan’s political stability at a time of economic slowdown and heightened regional tensions.