Japan’s Ruling Party Suffers Historic Defeat In Local Vote

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a major setback in Tokyo’s assembly election Sunday, a result that analysts say could influence its performance in next month’s upper house vote, the Japan Times reported. 

The LDP secured just 21 seats in the 127-member Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly – down from 30 in the previous election and its worst result in the capital to date. Tomin First no Kai, a regional party backed by Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, won the most seats with 31.  

The results were a surprise to many in the political establishment, especially as recent polls had shown a rebound in support for the LDP ahead of the July elections. 

The party – which has ruled Japan for most of the postwar era – has faced sinking popularity over rising consumer prices, a shortage of rice, and a 2023 fundraising scandal that implicated senior party leaders in off-the-book revenue schemes.  

Although recent national surveys still ranked it as the most popular party – with 24.5 percent support, up nearly five points from earlier this year – the Tokyo loss raised doubts about whether those gains will translate into electoral success. 

Observers suggested that the spike in support this year could be attributed to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to provide cash handouts of around $140 for every citizen ahead of the July elections.  

But LDP Tokyo leader Shinji Inoue said Sunday’s poor showing was due to the fallout from the funding scandal and doubts over the government’s efforts to tackle inflation, Agence France-Presse wrote. 

While some analysts noted that the results are “very severe” for the ruling party, others suggested that they might not necessarily predict LDP’s fortunes next month. 

Masahisa Endo of Japan’s Waseda University told AFP that even if LDP fails to win a majority in the upper house, Ishiba is unlikely to face leadership challenges. He added that it is also unlikely for Japan’s divided opposition to mount a challenge against the LDP.