Forcing Peace

One of Myanmar’s largest ethnic rebel groups declared a unilateral ceasefire, becoming the second insurgent force to halt hostilities with the country’s military government following pressure from neighboring China, the Associated Press reported.

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), representing the Kokang ethnic Chinese minority, said last week it would send a delegation for peace talks mediated by Beijing and called for dialogue to address long-standing grievances in Myanmar’s conflict-ridden northeast.

The armed group explained that its ceasefire decision was partly influenced by military airstrikes against civilians. However, it warned that it would defend its territory if its calls for autonomy were dismissed.

The MNDAA joins its ally, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), which announced late last month its readiness for peace talks with the military junta.

Both groups are members of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the Arakan Army. The alliance launched a major offensive in October 2023, seizing strategic territories, including Lashio, a key city in the northern Shan State.

Analysts suggested that the ceasefire calls are due to Chinese pressure rather than a genuine desire for reconciliation, raising concerns about the truce’s durability, according to Radio Free Asia.

This is not the first time ceasefires have been declared in the region. Beijing brokered a truce between the rebels and the junta in January that temporarily reduced hostilities.

However, that agreement collapsed this summer when the MNDAA and TNLA resumed attacks, capturing key military positions, including the northeast command.

The renewed fighting strained relations with China, which responded by closing border crossings, cutting off electricity, and reportedly detaining MNDAA leader Peng Daxun, though Beijing claims he was in China for medical treatment.

China, Myanmar’s largest economic partner and a key strategic ally of the military junta, has applied increasing amounts of pressure on the rebel groups to halt their offensives.

Beijing has economic interests in Myanmar, including energy pipelines and mining projects, and seeks stability in the region to safeguard these investments.

Chinese officials commended the MNDAA’s ceasefire announcement, urging all parties to de-escalate and resolve their differences through dialogue.

Myanmar has been grappling with violence and unrest since the army ousted the government of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021. The coup initially led to nationwide pro-democracy protests but later evolved into an armed resistance that observers now describe as a civil war.