A World Vote

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Chinese President Xi Jinping would probably prefer not to have to conduct relations with former President Donald Trump next year, while the Saudi, Israeli and Russian leaders, however, likely would. Europeans and Latin Americans are pining for Vice President Kamala Harris, while Africans and Asians are split.

Regardless of their preferences, leaders and their voters around the world will be watching the US elections on Tuesday very closely because whoever moves to the White House come January will likely impact their countries, too.

“From Beijing to Buenos Aires, people follow the fortunes of the US election candidates and tune in for the results – it has a global audience like no other election,” the BBC wrote. “(That’s) because America still matters like no other country.”

For China, the choice is clear. Trump, after all, initiated trade wars and an anti-China turn in American foreign policy when he was in the White House. But whether Trump or Harris wins the US election on Nov. 5, Xi can expect bumpy times ahead between China and the US, wrote NBC News.

Harris, for example, appears ready to build on Trump and President Joe Biden’s anti-China policies. Analysts speaking to the Anadolu Agency added that relations between the US and Taiwan have drawn closer since President Barack Obama first “pivoted” to Asia as the focus of American military strategy. The US has since sold Taiwan weapons and munitions to defend the island from potential Chinese aggression.

Others have more riding on the outcome of the American election.

Trump has long expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, noted longtime American journalist James Risen in the Intercept, adding that Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want Trump to win so that might “prolong and intensify their brutal wars without the possibility of American interference.”

Harris, meanwhile, would be more likely to criticize Israel’s response in Gaza to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 terror attack and the recent military incursions into Southern Lebanon.

Writing in the National Interest, the former commander of American Army forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, and a former US Senior Defense Attaché to Russia, Peter Zwack, said that only Harris would aid Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. Many European leaders share this opinion, added Reuters.

That said, Trump imposed plenty of sanctions on Russia, too, reported the Associated Press, suggesting that American policy won’t necessarily change as much as some people believe no matter who sits in the Oval Office.

South of the border, Mexican officials likely would also prefer Harris to win, given how she might seek to negotiate new border and trade deals through traditional channels versus how Trump would likely use his bully pulpit to force concessions from their country, wrote Barron’s.

Mexico and Canada, incidentally, are America’s biggest trading partners. The value of goods traded between the US and Mexico in 2023 was more than $800 billion, while Canada’s trade with the US amounted to $782 billion. China’s trade with the US was $576 billion.

For Canada, this election “keeps a lot of people up at night,” with the country sending a “Team Canada” for a “charm offensive” across the border to lobby for friendly policies, wrote the Washington Post. That’s because the Canadians remember how Trump tore up the North American Free Trade Agreement, setting off a bruising renegotiation, imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, and constantly insulted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

In Europe, with the exception of Hungary, officials in most capitals are fretting over a possible Trump victory and what that means for the Ukraine war and the future of NATO. Meanwhile, the vast majority of Europeans – including those on the far right – want a Harris win, a new poll reported by Euronews shows.

“Europe would face major problems if Donald Trump is reelected president,” wrote Deutsche Welle, the German state broadcaster. “Security and free trade might be endangered. But EU (European Union) leaders say they are ready for anything.”

While Middle Eastern leaders, especially in the Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, would prefer a Trump win, noted the Arab Center of Washington DC, in Asia, countries such as Japan, the Philippines and other allies are preparing for a more insular US if that happens, Nippon wrote.

In India, there is no discernable preference for Harris except for the visible support for her in the home village of her mother, with the Diplomat writing that neither candidate means much change for the US-India relationship.

However, that’s not the case in Jamaica, from where Harris’ father hailed.

Here, there’s a certain pride that someone of Jamaican descent can “make big waves in the US,” one Jamaican student told the Guardian, adding that if she wins, “Jamaica’s name, its flag, is going to fly high once more!”

Africans, meanwhile, are more sanguine about who wins the election, expecting little change in US policy, one that is often driven by the desire to counter or cut off Chinese influence on the continent, wrote the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

By contrast, the US election will directly impact the economies of South and Central America because of the different approaches to immigration policy of the two main parties and their candidates, wrote Voice of America, quoting the Fitch ratings agency: “Central America is highly vulnerable to US immigration policies, as remittances fund a large component of their economic activity.”

Reuters added that “Latin America (is bracing) for the US election’s impact on trade and tariffs.”

The BBC, addressing the impact of the US elections on countries around the globe, added a cautionary note. As well as the host of crises – two wars, the fallout from the pandemic, global warming – that America already is confronting, the next president will also have to deal with the unexpected, it wrote.

“The US can’t tackle any of those things without strong global alliances – which is why the world’s reaction to this election doesn’t just matter to the rest of the world,” the broadcaster added. “It matters to America, too.”