Of Victors and Spoils: Libya’s Oil Wealth Is Precluding Peace 

For years, Libya has existed in a stalemate, with two governments ruling over their respective fiefdoms that split the country, existing side-by-side in an uneasy and occasionally interrupted peace, a situation that has long benefited its two chiefs. 

But in May, that stalemate was shattered after the killing of a powerful militia leader set off fury and bombs around Tripoli and allowed gunmen to seize control of half of the city.  

The clashes, the worst in five years, have continued into August and left dozens dead in Tripoli and the western city of Zawiya, where rival militias have exchanged heavy gunfire in densely populated areas. In the south, fighting near Sabha underscored how fragile any central authority remains, with armed groups jostling for control of smuggling routes and oil infrastructure. 

The renewed clashes also highlight how attempts to reset the country after the ouster of strongman Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 are failing spectacularly, say analysts. Now, many are worried that Libya will descend into a full-blown civil war again, threatening its population, destabilizing its neighbors, rattling international markets, and intensifying the international race for control of the country’s riches.  

“In recent years the conflict (in Libya) has been frozen as the spoils have been divided among the various actors,” Tim Eaton of London-based think tank Chatham House, told Deutsche Welle. Over time, “these groups had been competing against one another to grab ever greater parts of the Libyan state.” 

Now, he added, “There clearly is a threat of a slide into another bout of civil war.”  

For years, the country has been split between the internationally recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli, led by business mogul Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, and the eastern-based House of Representatives, which is aligned with military commander Khalifa Haftar and his family. The two factions control 80 percent of the country and all of its oil fields. Both sides claim legitimacy, and each is backed by a patchwork of militias and foreign patrons, all vying for turf. 

But in May, as both camps vied for control over state enterprises and institutions, the leader of a powerful militia in Tripoli, Abdul Ghani al-Kikli, was killed, allegedly by Dbeibah’s supporters. Soon after, Dbeibah’s camp attacked another powerful militia, the Special Deterrence Forces, in an attempt by Dbeibah to flex his power and consolidate control. Instead, some say the move has put him on the verge of being overthrown, especially as the Haftars are likely to capitalize on the chaos to try to take Tripoli again. Already, their allied militias around the country are mobilizing.  

Analysts say the Tripoli clashes exposed the uneasy truth at the heart of the Libya split: Even militias flying the same flag under the GNU will turn their guns on each other when turf, money, and influence are on the line. 

Analysts say these are not ideological fights, but are focused on territory, contracts, and survival. They are also about oil, add analysts, noting that Libya is home to Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, which are at the heart of the battle for control of the country.  

“The country’s vast resources make it a prize, but [they are] also a point of vulnerability,” said Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert at the Royal United Services Institute, in an interview with Reuters. “As long as competing leaders rely on militia alliances to stay in power, violence will flare.” 

Foreign players are adding to volatility, too, in their attempt to get their share of the country’s riches, say analysts. For example, Haftar’s Libyan National Army has received arms, logistical support, and other aid from the United Arab Emirates and Russia, despite a United Nations arms embargo. Tripoli-based forces have had Turkish backing, including drones, advisers, and air defense systems.  

The US and European countries are also in the mix, eying lucrative oil deals while also trying to pressure Libya to keep migrants from other African countries there (Europe) or take deportees (the US). 

For years, observers have warned that the domestic and international jockeying for influence and control over Libya’s oil wealth will likely intensify unless eastern and western Libya are unified, something most doubt will occur in the short term.

That means that Libyans – who have been awaiting promised elections for four years – will continue to face violence as they struggle with soaring prices, electricity shortages, and few public services as the rulers in Tripoli and Benghazi steal their wealth. 

In May, after the violence broke out in Tripoli, Libyan’s frustrations boiled over, and thousands of protesters hit the streets calling for Dbeibah to resign, even as a few of his ministers heeded that call. 

But as Ben Fishman of the Washington Institute noted, the stalemate that arose in Libya after the 2020 ceasefire halted the civil war “enabled Haftar and Dbeibeh to remain in power with no intention of leaving.” 

“Both have pledged to cede power to a new transitional government,” he said. “However, neither appears intent on yielding their status quo privileges. Those include using state assets to enhance their families’ wealth and to distribute it to their allies.”

“(Libya) should be a wealthy country,” he added. Instead, “Libya has become a kleptocracy.”