Old Book, New Chapter: Bolivians To Choose New President From Among Old Faces 

Bolivians will go to the polls on Aug. 17 amid an economic crisis that could compel the impoverished South American country to default on its debts. 

As voters elect a new president and lawmakers, inflation is climbing while food supplies are dwindling following poor harvests, and foreign currency reserves are so dire that severe fuel shortages in a country that used to be an energy exporter now grind the country to a halt. 

Still, what is defining this political season in Bolivia, analysts say, has been the “implosion” of former Bolivian President Evo Morales’ Movement Towards Socialism party (MAS), the most potent political force in the country for the last two decades. 

The party’s decline began after election officials banned Morales from running for office again, explained IntelliNews, adding that while Morales broke barriers as the country’s first indigenous head of state and pursued a left-wing agenda to help the poor, he attempted an end-run around constitutional term limits and fled the country in 2019 amid accusations of electoral fraud. Today, he faces accusations of sexual abuse that have yet to be adjudicated. He has denied the allegations as politically motivated. 

Incumbent President Luis Arce, a MAS member and former Morales mentee who became a bitter rival, dropped out of the presidential race amid his poor handling of the country’s economy and turmoil following Morales’ exit and the brief presidency of former conservative Bolivian President Jeanine Áñez that followed, Al Jazeera wrote. 

Before they dropped out, Arce and Morales had been feuding. In addition to holding anti-government demonstrations, Morales’ followers have accused Arce of organizing a coup to hold on to power and plotting an assassination attempt against Morales, for example, according to the Americas Society/ Council of the Americas. Some analysts argue that MAS is now irreparably split. 

“The rift between one-time allies Arce and Morales has effectively split Bolivia’s most successful political party,” argued World Politics Review. “They have crashed the prospects of their party… and thrown the doors open to the opposition, which has its best chance in 20 years to win power at the ballot box.” 

Now 66-year-old billionaire Samuel Doria Medina is hoping to become the country’s first right-wing president in years, reported the Associated Press. The owner of Burger King restaurants in the country is vowing to scrap fuel subsidies that are bankrupting the government, reform money-losing state-owned enterprises, and is considering opening the country’s vast mineral and other natural resources to foreign investors and developers. 

Given how Bolivia is to hold a runoff in October, voters might end up choosing between two conservatives. Right-wing candidate Jorge Quiroga, a former president who served for two years in the early 2000s, is coming in a close second, followed by former military officer Manfred Reyes Villa, who ran unsuccessfully in 2002 and 2009, added BNAmericas. 

Polls show none of the candidates polling above 20 percent. Arce’s replacement, Eduardo del Castillo, his minister of government, has seen single-digit support in the surveys. Andrónico Rodríguez, the president of the Senate, long seen as Morales’ heir apparent, is caught up in the rivalry between Morales and Arce.  

All these mean the left-wing Bolivia of old is poised to be relegated to history, analysts say. Others, however, warn that Morales – and MAS, whatever form it reconstitutes itself into – are still the wild cards, noting how Arce polled low until election day in 2020.  

Regardless, if the conservatives win, they will face uphill battles in a country that has the strongest leftist movement in the region. 

“Overall, the right appears to be betting on old political figures who seem to have some confidence in an increasingly disenchanted electorate – this not only reveals the political crisis of the Bolivian right, which seems unable to launch new politicians into the electoral arena, but also an inability to reach minimum agreements,” wrote the People’s Dispatch. “These divisions could become major challenges for a neoliberal government in the Andean country, which has one of the most active social movements (Indigenous and peasant) in the entire region – movements that have been further strengthened after nearly 20 years of MAS governments.”