Playing Coy: Armenia Wants Peace – Azerbaijan Doesn’t Mind Waiting

In mid-March, Armenia and Azerbaijan did what many thought was impossible: They agreed on a draft of a peace treaty that would end a violent on-again, off-again war between the two that stretches back decades.

If it ends, it’s one of the few things that friends and enemies such as Azerbaijan, Armenia, the United States, the European Union, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and others in the South Caucasus could actually agree on – a peace would allow for economic development in the strategic region that would be beneficial far beyond the two countries’ borders.

But there is still a long way to go, say observers.

It’s “peace in principle, deadlock in practice,” wrote Cavid Veliyev of the Azerbaijan-based Center of Analysis of International Relations for Turkey’s newswire, the Anadolu Agency.

In the draft agreement, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has recognized Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh after three decades of Armenian separatist rule – a move seen as a crucial first step towards the normalization of relations, wrote the Guardian.

Last year, Armenia also returned to Azerbaijan four border villages it had seized decades earlier.

Still, there are issues before any treaty can be signed.

The next step would be for Armenia to remove claims to Azerbaijani territory from its constitution, which would require a referendum of the kind that the president called for in February. The problem is, there is no guarantee that Armenia’s voters would approve a constitutional change.

Also, Azerbaijan wants Armenia, as a precondition for signing the treaty, to agree to dissolve the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Minsk Group, an entity established in 1992 and led by the US, Russia, and France, to oversee the peace process. Azerbaijan sees it as biased toward Armenia.

Another sticking point is a desire by Azerbaijan for unhindered land access across Armenian territory connecting the Azerbaijani mainland to the Nakhchivan exclave.

Meanwhile, the agreement contained major concessions from Armenia, including the removal of EU monitors from the border and the dropping of lawsuits against Azerbaijan in international courts such as the International Court of Justice, Caucasus-based OC Media reported.

The conflict between the two nations dates back to the final years of the Soviet Union, when Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed over Nagorno-Karabakh, which demanded to be split off from Azerbaijan in 1988. It had an Armenian majority but had long been part of Azerbaijan. Since then, the two countries have fought two full-on wars, most recently in 2020. Meanwhile, a one-day military operation by Azerbaijan in 2023 ended in a decisive victory for that country, which reclaimed most of the territory it wanted. It also led to the exodus of 100,000 ethnic Armenians out of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The peace treaty had been in the works since 2020 as part of a Russia-brokered ceasefire ending the war that year. But after Azerbaijan defeated Armenia in 2023, Armenians decided they wanted peace –they had lost all of the territory they had taken from Azerbaijan decades earlier and worried they may lose more, maybe even their country.

“The wars also upended the regional order, cementing a decade-long shift in the balance of power that is now overwhelmingly in (Azerbaijan’s) favor,” wrote World Politics Review. “Given the lingering threats that Azerbaijan posed to Armenia – (Azerbaijan) had hinted at using force to seize a ‘corridor’ through Armenian territory to access an Azerbaijani exclave – (Armenia) effectively had no choice but to make concessions for a peace agreement.”

Still, since 2023, the Armenia-Azerbaijan border has effectively served as a front line, marked by trenches, hundreds of military positions, and thousands of soldiers stationed in rear bases, noted Civil Georgia. “While the situation is never completely calm, exchanges of fire occasionally escalate into full-scale clashes, often resulting in casualties among both soldiers and civilians.”

Meanwhile, Armenia is now trying to make powerful friends in the West to protect itself after its historical protector, Russia, failed to act in 2023, distracted by its war in Ukraine. Last week, for example, the Armenian parliament set the stage to apply for membership in the EU.

Even so, Russian influence remains strong in Armenia: The country is heavily dependent on Russian energy and trade and even hosts a Russian military base. There is concern, however, that Russia would sabotage the peace process if it ceases to be distracted by its war in Ukraine, mainly because peace would benefit Turkey – an ally of Azerbaijan but a neighbor of Armenia’s – and it has no interest in strengthening Turkey’s influence in the region.

Regardless, both Armenia and Azerbaijan are courting Russia again, wrote the Armenian Mirror Spectator.

“Long-time enemies Armenia and Azerbaijan are engaged in what could be described as a ‘rapprochement race,’ with each striving to repair strained ties with Russia,” wrote Eurasianet. “The mending of fences appears connected to maneuvering by Yerevan and Baku to gain advantages before the signing of a peace treaty.”

Still, a big reason that the peace has taken so long is that Armenia has been trying to get more concessions even as it risks more demands from the other side. Azerbaijan, however, sees it as just more stalling tactics. As one Western diplomat told Carnegia Politika: “Baku will not let anyone steal its victory.”

It’s piling on the pressure, too. For example, on the day that Armenia announced the draft treaty, Caliber.Az, a news outlet aligned with the Azerbaijani government, published a commentary accusing Armenia of preparing to launch a military offensive, which Armenia denied.

Still, most analysts believe Azerbaijan wants the treaty signed. Others say it’s important to get a peace signed as quickly as possible so there is no going backward.

“If those advocating for peace in the South Caucasus want to act, the time is now,” added Carnegie Politika. “The key pieces are in place. If Baku and Yerevan wait too long, they may squander one of the best opportunities for a settlement they have ever had – a misstep that would have grave consequences for the entire region.”