Polish Populist Wins Presidential Vote, Prompting Concerns Over Ukraine Aid 

Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland’s presidential runoff Sunday in a victory that has raised concerns about the country’s future relations with the European Union, support for Ukraine, and democratic governance, the Wall Street Journal reported. 

The final tally showed Nawrocki defeating his pro-EU rival, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, with 50.89 percent of the vote. The closely watched election also marked Poland’s highest voter turnout since the fall of communism in 1989. 

Nawrocki was backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party. His win represents a symbolic triumph for the populist right and is expected to complicate Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda.  

Tusk’s center-left coalition, which came to power in 2023, has been working to reverse PiS-era laws, such as restrictions on abortion and judicial appointments, and to repair ties with Brussels. 

Although largely ceremonial, the Polish presidency carries veto power over legislation and can refer laws to the constitutional court.  

Outgoing President Andrzej Duda, also a PiS ally, repeatedly used those powers to block government initiatives. Nawrocki has signaled that he will follow suit, particularly on EU-related reforms, according to CNBC. 

The incoming president has also positioned himself as a staunch nationalist, adopting a more critical stance toward Kyiv and accusing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of disrespecting Poland.  

While Nawrocki says he is committed to helping Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion, he has pledged to oppose Kyiv’s NATO membership bid and the deployment of Polish troops in support of Ukraine’s war effort. 

Nawrocki’s ties to US President Donald Trump were central to his campaign. He met with Trump in the Oval Office last month and received an endorsement from US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem during the first Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) held in Poland. 

His victory breaks a recent trend of liberal wins across Europe and beyond, including in Canada, Germany, and Romania, where voters opted for more centrist candidates over populists. 

Analysts said that Nawrocki’s presidency could strain relations with the EU and slow Warsaw’s alignment with Brussels, and instead push Poland to prioritize closer bilateral ties with Washington.  

Strong ties with the US remain popular in Poland, especially amid heightened fears of Russian aggression in neighboring Ukraine. 

Poland currently spends more than 4 percent of its gross domestic product on defense – more than any other NATO member – and has expanded its military in line with Trump’s demands for greater European contributions to the alliance.