The Morning After

A busy traffic circle in central Damascus lures Syrians celebrating the ouster of their former president, Bashar Assad.

Here, anti-regime songs, cheers, and car horns honking provide a soundtrack to a changing Syria.

Still, the crowd of thousands, often waving Syrian flags, has dwindled considerably in the two months since a lightning offensive by rebel fighters captured the country and deposed the Assad family who had ruled for more than five decades.

That’s because after celebrations, there’s always the morning after.

“In the early days after the fall of Assad, I was selling out of Syrian flags in all shapes and sizes,” Kahid Salih, a vendor at the circle, told NPR. “But sales have dropped along with celebrations … People are now so busy with working and trying to feed themselves.”

These days, the euphoria of liberation is transforming into the grim reality of picking up the pieces of their lives, of the country, and putting them back together again. It is a gargantuan task.

Almost every sector of the economy has been destroyed. Employment is scarce and incomes are low. Savings were wiped out as inflation spiked over the years, while the Syrian pound has all but collapsed. The infrastructure is in shambles – many Syrians don’t get a consistent supply of electricity or water. Entire towns and villages are decimated and housing remains an issue, especially with 7 million people internally displaced and 7 million more who fled the country, some of whom are now trying to return.

Meanwhile, years of economic mismanagement, corruption, and war hollowed out the foundations of governance, wrote the Australian Financial Review.

Still, the country is stumbling forward.

Last week, Ahmed al-Sharaa, leader of the rebel group that ousted Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), became interim president. He had already been in charge of the country since the HTS and its allies deposed Assad. Since then, he has moved fast to complete his takeover, dissolving the country’s constitution, parliament, and political parties affiliated with the Assad regime. He is now expected to form a temporary legislative council and create a new constitution. Elections are expected in a few years after a census is taken.

He’s also tried to bring the security situation under control, working to disband all rebel groups and integrate their soldiers into a unified Syrian force. And he has tried to rebuild the police forces quickly to restore security and prevent looting and revenge attacks against Assad officials and regime supporters.

Still, hope breeds impatience: If al-Sharaa doesn’t address Syrians’ basic needs quickly, the government could lose its legitimacy. Analysts say that could lead to the country descending into chaos again, possibly fragmenting into warring fiefdoms. There is also concern that, in the absence of progress, the government may revert to the authoritarianism of the Assads to maintain control.

Meanwhile, the new leader has the world’s spotlight on him, too, as regional powers such as Israel, Egypt, Turkey, the Gulf states, and the West watch, hopeful but cautious, to see who he is and what he will do.

Al-Sharaa has distanced himself from his jihadist roots – the HTS was once affiliated with al Qaeda and other militant groups but broke with them almost a decade ago. Still, there are militants within his coalition and the US continues to designate the HTS as a terrorist group. He told the BBC that Western officials should reconsider that designation.

France has already removed some sanctions on Syria and other countries are considering it. “They’re the new ones in power,” said Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp. “We want to see how their words are translated into actions.”

That’s a problem for restarting Syria. The new interim government wants to privatize elements of its previously state-run economy in a bid to draw the foreign investment it badly needs to rebuild – but says it needs international sanctions lifted to do so.

Neighbors are even more cautious.

Still, since Assad’s fall, Israel bombed Syrian military sites in a move designed to make sure the new government Saana won’t gain access to deadly weapons. It seized territory in the Syrian-controlled part of the Golan Heights to create a buffer zone, Al Jazeera explained.

Al-Sharaa, who has asked for Israel’s withdrawal, offered reassurance that the new Syrian government would not threaten the Jewish state or allow Iran to reestablish itself in Syria, the Times of Israel reported.

Also, the Syrian government last week asked Russia to turn over Assad, who was granted asylum in Russia, in exchange for access to the two military bases that it had used to prop up Assad and for its operations in Africa. It also asked Russia for reparations for its role in the killings of Syrians and the destruction of the country, according to Sanaa, Syria’s state news agency.

Adding to the security issues confronting Syria’s new government is the reconciliation of its disparate communities, Alawites (Shiites), Sunnis, the Kurds, and others, who don’t trust each other after a 14-year war that has killed more than 600,000 people. And most don’t trust the HTS, even though the new leader has promised to govern with moderation and respect all minorities.

Analysts say it’s important to resolve this issue to ensure the fighting doesn’t threaten reconstruction. However, the Alawites, Assad’s sect, have been creating militias such as the Syrian Popular Resistance, according to Ahmad Sharawi of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Clashes have already erupted between the Alawites and the HTS and other Sunni groups near Homs and elsewhere.

“It is highly likely that external actors will seek to exploit this chaos, particularly Iran, which has been accused of fueling the insurgency against HTS,” he wrote. “Additionally, the region holds strategic value for (Iran’s) broader ambitions, as it provides direct access to Lebanon, where its key proxy, Hezbollah, is eager to rearm and rebuild. A destabilized border corridor creates the ideal conditions for Iranian influence.”

At the same time, there are terror groups such as Islamic State waiting in the wings to regroup even as al Qaeda in Syria, known as Hurras al-Din, announced in January that it had dissolved, wrote the New Arab.

The West and regional powers should not wait to help Syria, says the Atlantic Council. Otherwise, not only will other actors such as Russia take advantage of Syria’s desperation, but also the long period of reconstruction could give oxygen to the region’s terror groups.

“The coming months will determine whether Syria’s post-Assad era will be a story of renewal or yet another missed opportunity,” it wrote. “Syrians are yearning for change, but they cannot carry the burden alone. And the stakes could not be higher – not just for Syria but for a region desperate for hope and stability.”