Rough Seas: A Family Feud Divides Philippines as Voters Head to the Polls

In March, when Filipino police arrested the country’s former president, Rodrigo Duterte, on an International Criminal Court warrant stemming from his alleged crimes against humanity while fighting drug traffickers, Duterte’s critics were overjoyed. 

Amnesty International Secretary General Agnes Callamard called the arrest “a long-awaited and monumental step for justice” against “a deliberate, widespread and well-organized campaign of state-sanctioned killings.”   

As Filipino voters prepare to head to the polls for legislative and local elections on May 12, however, many don’t share Callamard’s sentiments, noted Asia Nikkei. 

In the East Asia Forum, La Trobe University law professor Kerstin Steiner, for instance, argued that political candidates affiliated with Duterte and his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte – who was impeached in February by the lower house of parliament on corruption charges that included an alleged plot to assassinate current President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. and is currently awaiting trial in the Senate – still enjoy considerable support among Filipinos who hailed their tough-on-crime agenda. 

Elected head of state in 2022, President Marcos, the son of the country’s former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, has continued many of Duterte’s harsh policies, World Politics Review said. But the Dutertes’ fall from grace led Bongbong to terminate his political alliance with the family and strike out on his own in a bid to consolidate power. 

He might have made the smart move. Three billionaires, Manny Villar, Ramon Ang, and Ricky Razon, who control three political parties, have lined up behind Bongbong, reported the Rappler, a local Filipino news outlet founded by 2021 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa. 

Still, Filipino politics has become increasingly polarized as a result of this jockeying. Catholic authorities even recently issued an appeal for calm amid a surge in deepfake images and videos, AI-driven scam calls, and other elements of misinformation campaigns that seek to erode the standings of candidates either backing the Dutertes or Bongbong’s alliance, according to the Vatican News service. 

These internal disputes have big geopolitical implications. The Philippines, under Marcos, is again an important American ally in the cold war against China in the region after former President Duterte had pivoted toward closer relations with China. These days, the Filipino navy is constantly maneuvering in the South China Sea, for example, to block Chinese efforts to control small islands that could become important bases in the event of a war, Al Jazeera wrote. 

Today, the US is ramping up military cooperation with the country. That cooperation, incidentally, has faced setbacks, like when a World War II-era boat sank before US and Filipino ships on naval exercises could blow it up. 

Still, with drills also involving Australia, the United Kingdom, and Japan, analysts say that the US is trying to keep the pressure on China and deter acts of aggression. China, meanwhile, strongly opposes exercises involving US forces in or near the South China Sea or Taiwan, the island democracy which Beijing claims as a part of its territory. 

“The Trump administration is trying to keep the pressure on China through its support to the Philippines,” Derek Grossman, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corporation, told the Associated Press. He added that it’s unclear “just how sustainable this commitment will be given that the Trump administration seems less hawkish on China than its predecessors.”