Shuffling the Deck

A statue of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the deceased leader of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, was recently unveiled in Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic (CAR).

President Faustin-Archange Touadéra was honoring the man and his fighters whom he had invited to the CAR in 2018 to help fight rebels seeking to overturn his authoritarian regime, the BBC explained. Prigozhin died in a plane crash in 2023 after staging an unsuccessful mutiny against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The statue is an ironic symbol of Russia’s ambitions in Africa, one of the country’s key spheres of influence since the West slapped sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine, and Syrian President Bashar Assad fled his country in ignominy in December.

Assad’s fall could now cost Russia its foothold in the Middle East by eliminating a crucial supply hub, Responsible Statecraft added, even as Russia’s clout in Africa might also be weakening.

This summer, for example, Wagner troops – who now operate under the name “Africa Corps” as Le Monde noted – suffered a major defeat in northern Mali. Ethnic Tuaregs seeking to create an independent state and al Qaeda-affiliated jihadists tracked down and killed dozens of Russian mercenaries in the remote desert.

That attack wasn’t surprising because some locals want to end Russia’s influence in the region, the Associated Press wrote. Citing Human Rights Watch, the AP detailed how Russian mercenaries and Malian troops have killed innocent civilians, kidnapped others, and burned down villages where they believed rebels fighting the regime of Malian President Col. Assimi Goïta are taking refuge.

Despite the setback, Russia has been trying to expand its power in the country and on the continent, the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted. Payments to the Africa Corps in the form of Malian gold, a vital resource that would help finance Russia’s war in Ukraine could be one reason why.

Still, the possible loss of Khmeimim air base and Tartus naval base in Syria, that Russia has been using to send personnel, fuel, and supplies to the military juntas ruling Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger would stymie that goal because they make up the network that fuels Russian operations in Africa. This has allowed Russia to expand its military, political, and economic power on the continent, wrote Bloomberg.

The Khmeimim air base, in particular, serves as an air bridge that has enabled Russia to rebuild some of its Cold War-era clout in Africa, particularly in places like the CAR and the Sudan.

“Without a reliable air bridge, Russia’s ability to project power in Africa collapses,” Anas el-Gomati, director of the Sadeq Institute, a think tank based in Libya, told the financial wire. “Russia’s entire operational strategy in the Mediterranean and Africa is hanging by a thread.”

Russia could develop a Plan B by turning to its allies in Libya, Cameroon, or Congo-Brazzaville to supply the landlocked CAR’s operations. CAR officials have already said they, in turn, would help to supply the Sahel operations.

But Libya could thwart those plans.

Russia has assisted military commander Khalifa Haftar, who holds sway in eastern Libya, the seat of the Government of National Stability, since a failed attempt in 2019-2020 to take Tripoli, where the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord is based. Now Russia wants to move its armaments from Syria to Libya, to the four bases it uses in the country. But these bases can’t easily replace the Syrian ones because they are too far from Russia given restrictions on flying through European airspace.

Meanwhile, that plan might be in jeopardy anyway if Libya successfully moves toward creating a unity government and elections as it pledged to do last month. At the same time, the government in Tripoli has ruled out any Russian weapons being placed in Libya, the Guardian noted.

Russia faces other challenges in Africa, too.

In late October, police in Chad arrested Wagner group operative Maxim Shugaley under mysterious circumstances, according to Voice of America. Shugaley is a notorious propagandist who has advanced Russia’s interests around the world.

Shugaley might have been seeking to undermine French interests in Chad. France historically has deep diplomatic ties in the region and stationed troops in the country – until they were asked to leave in mid-December. His arrest might show that African nations are “growing weary of Russian meddling,” wrote the Africa Defense Forum.

And Ukraine has also been taking its fight against Russia to Africa, noted World Politics Review. Ukrainian forces are now in Sudan to fight against Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, whose so-called Rapid Support Forces are seeking to overthrow the government with the help of the Africa Corps, the Kyiv Independent reported.

Ukrainians have also implied that they were instrumental in the losses suffered by Russia in Mali: Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, said that the Malian rebels had received “all the information they needed, which allowed (them) to carry out their operation against the Russian war criminals” and Malian troops.

Soon after, Mali and Niger broke off relations with Ukraine.

Still, Ukraine might have won anyway this time because its assistance could lead to a rethink by Mali and other countries about how they deal with Russia, with Wagner forces being placed under greater state control, “much like the process currently underway in Libya,” Samuel Ramani, Russia-Africa relations expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told South Africa’s Institute for Security Studies.

He added that “it might also give Burkina Faso and Niger, which are allowing small contingents of Russian advisers to operate in their countries … second thoughts about entrusting Russia more broadly with counter-terrorism missions.”