The Desperation of Dictators: Tunisia’s President Is Running Out of Time

A Tunisian court opened a high-profile trial in early March to hear evidence against 40 people accused of various charges that include illegal contact with foreign individuals and organizations, conspiracy against state security, and membership in a terrorist organization.

Some of the charges carry the death penalty.

The accused, who are lawyers, journalists, former government officials, politicians, business leaders, human rights activists, and former diplomats, don’t have much in common except that they are all high-profile critics of President Kais Saied.

The president has called the accused “terrorists and traitors.” They call him a “dictator.”

Some of the defendants have been in jail for two years, others have fled the country. Many aren’t allowed to attend the trial because they are deemed threats to national security, a charge their lawyers and families dispute.

As the trial opened, protesters and family members of the accused outside the courthouse called the trial a sham and said the charges were fabricated and politically motivated.

“It is one of the darkest injustices in Tunisia’s history,” the head of the Tunisian League for the Defense of Human Rights, Bassam Trifi, told the BBC.

But most observers weren’t surprised by the trial. After all, it’s just part and parcel of the dictator’s playbook, observers said.

“(The) violent return to authoritarian rule, similar to that of (former president) Zine El Abidine Ben Ali is very real – the parallels between the two leaders are increasingly obvious to many Tunisians and international observers,” wrote Le Monde. “The concentration of power in the hands of the president, repressive measures against the opposition, and attacks on freedom of the press all point to a repressive regime and the savagery of a dictatorship.”

The birthplace of the Arab Spring pro-democracy uprisings, Tunisia had a messy experiment with popular rule and, at the same time, suffered economic setbacks. Meanwhile, the new governments that followed Ben Ali did little to address the economic misery or dismantle the architecture of corruption that touches all aspects of society, both factors that had helped ignite the Tunisian revolution.

Out of frustration, Tunisian voters in 2019 elected Saied, a former constitutional law professor. Two years later, he dissolved parliament, dismissed the prime minister, and suspended the constitution, instituting a rule by presidential decree in what critics called “a coup.” The president has taken control over the judiciary and rewritten the constitution to enhance his powers.

Since then, the country – long seen as the region’s most progressive – has witnessed a significant rollback of freedoms.

Police regularly round up activists, journalists, lawyers, and opposition politicians, charging them with conspiracy and other terrorism-related crimes. Recently, content creators, even those who are apolitical, have been arrested and jailed, accused of “indecency.”

Saied’s supporters argue his crackdowns are necessary to stabilize a nation grappling with inflation, unemployment, nepotism, and corruption, wrote the Associated Press. Many Tunisians blame political elites for corruption and the economic mismanagement of the country.

“We didn’t need more debates in parliament,” one Tunisian voter told the Conversation. “We needed someone to act. And Saied acted.”

Still, some of that support is souring as the economy continues to stagnate. Living standards have fallen due to high inflation, rising public debt, a lack of essential goods, and a high unemployment rate of 16 percent.

In 2022, Saied’s administration negotiated a $1.9 billion bailout loan with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but the deal collapsed because Saied balked at implementing the reforms demanded by the IMF to stabilize the country’s economy, saying they would increase poverty and fuel social unrest.

The unrest, however, is simmering regardless, say analysts, who point out that the current economic situation is reminiscent of the period that saw the Tunisian revolution erupt.

For example, despite the crackdown on dissent, protests have skyrocketed in Tunisia this year: February saw a 140 percent rise in demonstrations compared with the same period last year. All over the country, people are hitting the streets to voice anger over deteriorating living standards and a lack of opportunities.

Some of these protests involve students acting to self-immolate – it was a street vendor who set himself on fire out of frustration with society that set off the Tunisian revolution almost 15 years ago.

“(After 2021), authorities managed to spread fear and self-censorship in activists’ circles, through laws like Decree 54, harassment and trials,” Karim Toraa, president of the unemployed graduates’ association, told the Middle East Eye, referring to legislation to combat “fake news” – laws known for silencing critics.

“However, we’re past that now,” he added. “People’s socioeconomic conditions are terrible. When people become hungry, they don’t have anything to fear anymore, not jail nor repression.”

Adding to that is an administration mired in chaos, with a revolving door for prime ministers – three in two years – cabinet members and other senior officials.

That means the buck stops with Saied.

“Because Tunisians face so many of the same problems that they did under Ben Ali – corruption, inequality, police brutality, and unemployment – the longer Saied remains in office, the less he can sell himself as a political outsider,” wrote Foreign Affairs. “He is losing the ability to scapegoat other politicians, because Tunisians know that he controls all the levers of government power.”

“Saied has extinguished the country’s experiment with democracy – for now,” it added. “But he should not rest easy.”