The Emperor’s New Clothes: Coup Leader Ahead in Gabon’s Elections

In August 2023, Gabon’s rulers were deposed in a coup. But unlike other countries in West Africa that have experienced coups, many voters hailed the change. After all, the Bongo family that presided over the country for 56 years were rapacious, brutal, and widely despised.

“I am joyful,” Jules Lebigui, an unemployed young man in the capital Libreville, told Reuters soon after the coup. “After almost 60 years, the Bongos are out.”

After the coup, the first in Gabon, its leader Gen. Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema and the ruling junta formed the Committee for the Transition and Restoration of Institutions, dissolved the constitution and all state institutions, and set about building new ones they pledged would establish democracy in the country. Soon after, he became interim president and oversaw the implementation of a new constitution, which was approved by a referendum in 2024, and a new electoral law in January.

Nguema won plaudits for freeing political prisoners detained by Ali Bongo, the former president, allowing exiles to return home and launching an anti-graft drive that targeted the Bongo clan and other elites.

And to build support for this transition, he also allowed some members of Bongo’s regime to participate in his government along with opposition figures: For example, he allowed Marie-Madeleine Mborantsuo to return as president of the country’s top constitutional court, noted Africanews.

The transitional government also introduced free school tuition, repaired more than 370 miles of roads, and launched youth work programs to tackle an unemployment rate of almost 40 percent among those under 35.

He vowed to return the country to civilian rule sooner rather than later and initially set elections for August 2025 before moving them up by four months.

The interim president did, more or less, what he said he would do, to the widespread approval of the public, observers said. And now, ending months of speculation over whether he would run, he’s the front-runner in presidential elections set for April 12.

“Gabon is experiencing a historic moment,” Apoli Bertrand Kameni of the University of Freiburg in Germany told Deutsche Welle. “Things will follow the course (set) by the new authorities because for many of the Gabonese, the military has produced more achievements in one year than the old regime (did in decades).”

Still, in spite of Nguema – a member of the Bongo clan himself – ushering in numerous changes, it’s not quite the fresh start that many in the country had hoped for, say analysts.

“In other words, far from being a revolution to overthrow the old order, the ouster of Ali Bongo was a palace coup, and all that has followed it essentially amounted to ostensibly reshuffling an intricately stacked deck,” wrote World Politics Review. “But that in turn underscores the fact that Oligui does not embody the clean break with the past that he has long claimed to represent and which many Gabonese yearn for.”

For example, some believe the changes strengthen the presidency to a dangerous extent. Others say term limits are necessary to prevent another multi-decade dynasty. And in spite of the enthusiasm of the country’s new rulers to hold elections, some members of the opposition say the new constitution and electoral code favor the junta’s candidate.

Analysts agree. Despite the unlevel playing field, 22 opposition leaders submitted their candidacies to the Ministry of Interior, which is now in charge of elections, but only seven were accepted, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Opposition candidates with the most name recognition, like Albert Ossa and Pierre Moussavou, for example, were barred from running due to an age limit that was written into the new electoral code. Others were prohibited from running due to inadequate parental citizenship and marriage certificate documentation.

“Oligui has followed a carefully choreographed sequence of actions to pave an unobstructed pathway to claim the presidency,” the think tank wrote. “Given the legacy of vote rigging in Gabon and the tightly structured post-coup transition, prospects of a free and fair process are dim.”

Economically, things have not changed much either. Gabon is the third richest country in Africa as measured by GDP per capita, according to the World Bank. Even so, about one-third of Gabon’s 2.5 million people live in poverty.

The country is also still far too dependent on oil in spite of attempts to diversify its economy. Its unemployment is high as its public debt, expected to exceed 80 percent of GDP this year.

Regardless, Oligui is expected to win the election. And he’ll likely get the benefit of the doubt from the public – for a while, say analysts.

“The positive thing is that since we went through a military coup, I want to believe that most of the population of Gabon wants a better democracy,” Herbert Mba Aki of the Omar Bongo University in Libreville, told OkayAfrica. “I want to believe that these new rules (set by the new constitution) will be respected and not be used for political purposes or for personal purposes.”