The Prep: Europeans, Feeling Abandoned, Get Ready For War

The Lithuanians recently unveiled an evacuation plan for Vilnius, just in case the city of 540,000 is invaded. In it, residents of each neighborhood are told which one of the 150 routes out of the capital they can use to leave the city.  

“People need to make this decision now, not when it’s time to leave their homes,” said Vilnius City Council member Aurimas Navys in an interview with Lithuanian public broadcaster, LRT. “You have to ask yourself: Will I need assistance, will I go on my own, or even on foot?” 

Some may believe that is fearmongering. But Lithuania, a post-Soviet state that is now part of NATO and the European Union, and which borders Russia’s Kaliningrad – a heavily militarized Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea – and also Belarus, which hosts thousands of Russian troops, has long been worried about its aggressive neighbor.  

Those fears are now spreading around Europe, which is waking up to the reality that the new, unpredictable US administration is less interested in the transatlantic alliance or defending Europe. As a result, in recent months, European leaders have increasingly switched to a war stance, increasing budgets for defense, mulling conscription, and buying weapons.  

“After the Munich Security Conference, then the Trump-Zelenskyy row, Europe got a wake-up call,” Monika Schnitzer, chair of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts, told the BBC. “For the first time Europeans may not be able to rely on Washington. A lot of people had sleepless nights after that.”  

European leaders don’t want to frighten people, but they want them prepared. They say they recognize they have long outsourced their security to the US and that Europeans have gotten complacent. It’s now time for that to change, they add.  

As a result, the EU recently told the bloc’s 450 million residents to pack a 72-hour survival go-bag with items such as food, cash, a flashlight, a radio, and a Swiss army knife to face threats that are “more complex than ever,” according to Hadja Lahbib, European commissioner for preparedness and crisis management.  

“For three years in Ukraine, we have seen a battlefield of bombs and bullets, drones and fighter planes, trenches and submarines,” she said in a statement. “Our European security is directly threatened by this.” 

“We can stick our heads in the sand and act like it isn’t happening,” she added. “Or we can look these threats squarely in the eye and say: ‘This is the reality. We will prepare.’” 

The EU recently also told all its member countries to develop their own preparedness plans while the bloc would coordinate emergency responses, stockpile medicines, energy, and other necessary items.  

Some were already ahead of the curve. Sweden, late last year, sent out its recommendations to its residents on how to survive a crisis or attack in a brochure called, “In Case of Crisis or War,” with tips on how to stockpile food and water, first aid, and how to find reliable information in case of emergency – social media did not make that list.  

“If Sweden is attacked, everyone must do their part to defend Sweden’s independence – and our democracy,” it said. “You are part of Sweden’s overall emergency preparedness.” 

Meanwhile, France is creating a “survival guide” for residents for distribution this summer. Germany, which changed its constitution recently in order to vastly increase its defense budget, is also building more bomb shelters. It’s even thinking of dropping a public holiday to pay for these expenditures. Poland, meanwhile, is implementing “military training for every adult male,” Polish President Donald Tusk announced in March.  

And conscription is back on the table across the continent, in the hopes of assembling the additional 300,000 troops analysts say the continent needs for deterrence.  

Currently, Austria, Cyprus, Switzerland, Norway, Finland, Greece, Denmark, and Estonia have mandatory military service. Lithuania reintroduced conscription in 2015, a year after Russia annexed Crimea. Sweden followed suit in 2017, and Latvia in 2023. 

Over the past 25 years, however, some countries such as Germany and Poland have abolished conscription. Now, some like Croatia are bringing it back, reported Euronews. 

Europeans have been suddenly struck by their vulnerability, Michel Goya, an author and military historian at Sciences Po university in Paris, told France 24. “It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who’s been swimming naked,” he said. “The American sea is receding, and many European countries are saying to themselves that yes, in the end, they are a little bit exposed.”