The Trump Effect: Anger at the US Fuels Leftist Advantage in Australian Elections

A global trade war, threats from China and Russia, a United States that is now less engaged in its traditional alliances – these are the big issues, commentators say, facing the next Australian leader after the general election on May 3. 

And yet, all the candidates want to do is talk about “minor tax tweaks,” complained the Guardian Australia’s editor, Lenore Taylor, in a recent opinion piece.  

“(Lately), it’s an overwhelming stream of historic end-of-the-global-order-as-we-knew-it kind of news,” she fumed. “And then there’s the Australian election campaign, calmly engaging in a lackluster battle between a modest ongoing tax cut or a one-off tax rebate and a few dollars off the price of filling the car with fuel …” 

“The parties need to offer nuts-and-bolts policies to address the cost-of-living crisis,” she added. “But will anyone also raise their sights to take in the frightening global picture?”

The legislative race pits incumbent Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of the left-leaning Labor party against the center-right Liberal-National Coalition headed by Peter Dutton, a former police detective and firebrand conservative who has been called “Trump-lite” and “Temu Trump” – a moniker that is intended to imply that he’s a “cheap version” of US President Donald Trump.  

Until recently, it was a tightly contested election dominated by voters’ cost-of-living concerns. 

Albanese has seen a decline in the polls since he took office in 2022 because of a struggling economy marked by post-pandemic inflation that he promised to fix. Australians have grappled with the high prices of groceries and other essentials, making it their top priority in the elections. As a result, the government last month pushed through $10 billion in tax cuts and other relief measures, a move the opposition called a “bribe.”  

But Albanese disputed that. “Our government has chosen to face global challenges the Australian way – helping people under cost-of-living pressure while building for the future,” he said recently. 

Still, it’s rare in Australia, observers say, for first-term incumbents to lose their reelection bids. And now, recent polls show Labor leading after a drop in support in April for the Coalition. Still, analysts say that with a large number of voters undecided, it could still be a close race for the majority of the 150 seats in Australia’s House of Representatives.  

That’s because Albanese will be blamed for the inflation despite the tax relief package and even if he is personally liked – he is often described as “working-class hero,” competent and trustworthy, with an affable manner.  

“For Albanese, the honeymoon is over,” wrote Pandanus Petter of Australian National University in the Conversation. “Unfortunately for Albanese, the dissatisfaction and stress about the cost of living haven’t gone away.” 

Still, the prime minister presents a stark contrast to his pugnacious opponent, the leader of the scandal-prone Liberal-National Coalition, which he ousted after nine years in power.  

Dutton, analysts add, has a major image problem with voters now.  

He was already dogged by past actions, such as cracking down on protests while home minister in a manner that outraged many Australians. More recently, he was forced to walk back initiatives such as a “return to the office” mandate and a proposal to deport dual-nationals charged with serious crimes after a public backlash. 

More recently, Dutton has campaigned on policies seen widely as emulating Trump and the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) the US president created and run by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk. In January, Dutton appointed Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as a shadow minister for government efficiency, a position inspired by Musk’s role, analysts said.  

“With Australians sick of the wasteful spending that is out of control … Jacinta will be looking closely at how we can achieve a more efficient use of taxpayers’ money,” Dutton said after the appointment. Price, meanwhile, talked about how she wanted to “Make Australia Great Again.” 

These initiatives haven’t been going over so well now with Australian voters, who are concerned about Trump’s policies, with Dutton’s approval ratings dropping. He’s now carrying the moniker, “DOGE-y Dutton.”  

Aware of the dip in popularity, Dutton has stopped channeling Trump or even bringing him up at all after calling Trump “a big thinker” with “gravitas,” earlier this year and how he would eliminate all things “woke.” 

Meanwhile, in recent days, members of the Trump administration have mocked Australia and said they are just trying to milk the country to pay down US debt, infuriating Aussies and further dragging down Dutton.  

In fact, every time the Trump administration does something that upsets Australians, Labor’s polls increase, analysts said.  

“Trump has emerged as the third candidate in this election campaign,” Mark Kenny, professor of politics at the Australian National University in Canberra, told Reuters. “He’s made it quite difficult for Peter Dutton to get his message across, and made it difficult for Dutton to be seen as an entirely independent figure in this election campaign.” 

“(Australians) are not enjoying the turmoil and the capriciousness of the White House, and Dutton’s early enthusiasm along with other conservatives to celebrate Trump’s win has been pretty much lead in his saddlebags all the way through this campaign,” Kenny added. “That weight has just got heavier and heavier as Trump has become less and less popular.” 

Meanwhile, even though Dutton has bragged that he could successfully negotiate with Trump, Albanese has, in the eyes of the Australian public, stood up to the US president after he targeted Australia’s pharmaceutical industry and also its steel and aluminum products. The US has a trade surplus with Australia.  

The prime minister is now projecting a much tougher image than he once did. “The two conversations I’ve had with President Trump are ones in which I stand up for Australia’s national interest, and I will always do that,” Albanese said. 

Labor has taken advantage, analysts said. “It’s hard to remember an Australian government being so publicly critical of an American president,” wrote the Australian Broadcasting Commission. “The gloves haven’t completely come off, but on the eve of an election, the decision to stop playing nice and start talking frankly gives an insight into how Labor reads the domestic public mood towards Trump.” 

Dutton has no such advantage. 

Still, while Labor is the favorite to win, most aren’t happy with the two top contenders but will have to choose – voting is mandatory in Australia for those over 18. 

“Most voters think Australia is on the wrong track,” wrote the Council on Foreign Relations. “(But) …the Trump effect favors Albanese.”