Turbulence Ahead: Portugal Holds Vote, Searches For Stability

The center-right Democratic Alliance’s minority government under Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro of the Social Democratic Party fell recently after he lost a vote of confidence stemming from corruption and conflicts of interest linked to his family-owned consultancy, Spinumviva. 

As the Fondation Robert Schuman explained, the media uncovered how Montenegro was set to benefit handsomely from his Spinumviva contracts with companies using state concessions as well as new land laws that would help its real estate business. 

His predecessor, Socialist Prime Minister António Costa, resigned after he became embroiled in corruption scandals related to lithium exploration and green hydrogen projects, wrote Politico. The Socialists are the junior partner in the governing coalition. 

As a result, Portuguese voters on May 18 will elect a parliament in a snap election for the third time in as many years. 

Now, according to the Economist, the big question is whether a new government can deliver stability to the country and, equally importantly, whether they need to include the fast-growing rightwing Chega political party – or “Enough!” in Portuguese – that has proposed zero-tolerance for immigration and other hardline policies. 

Chega represents a shift from the tolerant, pluralistic society that emerged in the country after the fall of the country’s military junta in the late 1970s, argued a London School of Economics blog post. 

But now, their policies reflect discontent over North African, Middle Eastern, and South Asian migrants who have sought asylum in Europe amid violence and poverty back home, as well as the so-called “digital nomads,” or foreigners who have moved to Portugal to take advantage of visa schemes for remote Western workers. Foreign workers, for example, have pushed up housing prices in the capital Lisbon by almost a third in the last five years, added Fortune. 

Montenegro appears to be taking Chega’s ideas seriously. Now serving in a caretaker role, he recently announced plans to expel 8,000 foreigners living illegally in the country. He denied that the decision had anything to do with the election, reported the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation – a stance the prime minister’s critics say strains credulity. 

The prime minister has pledged not to work with Chega. But, if he manages to assemble a government without them, his margin will be slim and he will be weak, argued World Politics Review. The Socialists, meanwhile, were running only 1.4 percent ahead of Montenegro’s party in recent weeks, local media reported. 

Unless there is an upset by a party other than Chega, the country can expect more, not less, instability, noted observers. 

“Minority governments in Portugal have tended to be short-lived,” wrote Bloomberg, noting how the Socialists and Social Democratic Party have dominated Portuguese politics over five decades. “In 50 years of democracy, only two have survived a full four-year term.”