War and Peace: Kurdish Ceasefire Could Change the Middle East

It was a remarkable moment for many in Turkey and elsewhere: Last month, Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), called on his force to lay down their arms after 40 years of conflict.

A few days later, the PKK declared a ceasefire in its war with Turkey.

Now, if the momentum toward a peace deal with the PKK holds, it could change not only the political dynamics within Turkey but also in the region, analysts said.

“This is a historic call,” Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution, told the New York Times, referring to Öcalan’s appeal.

“(The proposal) has a lot to do with the geopolitical pressures building up in Turkey’s neighborhood, creating a sense of insecurity for both Turks and Kurds,” she added. “The chaotic start of the Trump administration and the uncertainty about Syria’s future also seem to have made it evident to Ankara that it needs to consolidate on the home front – there is no better way to do it than a deal with Kurds.”

For the Kurds in Turkey and elsewhere, it could bring an end to decades of repression and violence by the Turkish government and a war that has killed about 40,000 people. It also brings a chance at political and social inclusion, a recognition of their identity, more self-rule and the release of Kurdish political prisoners.

For Syria, it could bring the stability it needs to rebuild the country by promoting reconciliation between the Syrian Kurds, who hold one-third of the country and its oil fields, and the new Syrian government, at a fragile point in the country’s transition.

For Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, it could bring the Kurdish political support he needs to change the constitution to be able to stay in power for another presidential term.

And for Turkey overall, it could bring peace at home and with the Kurdish groups that are spread across Iraq, Iran and Syria, freeing it from engaging its military in those areas, and allowing it to focus on its expansionist goals in the region.

“If the terrorist organization evaluates this call, lays down its arms and gathers to dissolve itself, Turkey will be freed from its shackles,” said Efkan Ala, deputy chairman of Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party.

Öcalan, 75, has been in prison since 1999, after being convicted of treason. Even so, he has continued to wield significant influence over the PKK, which was designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the US and the European Union. The PKK has led an insurgency in southeast Turkey since 1984. Previous peace efforts have ended with failure – most recently a decade ago.

Peace efforts this time began in October. Erdoğan wants to win the support of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), part of the opposition, to change the constitution to allow Erdoğan to have another term. He has been in power since 2003.

The DEM party has long pressed for greater democracy in Turkey, rights for the country’s Kurdish population and to improve conditions for Öcalan.

In spite of the latest peace efforts, Erdoğan’s government has widened a crackdown on the opposition, arresting journalists and politicians and removing at least eight municipal officials from areas won by the DEM party in elections last year including a mayor.

Analysts say that was an attempt to increase pressure on the Kurds to make a peace deal. That, in turn, helps Turkey with its goals for Syria.

Turkey has been involved in Syria for years, bankrolling the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group that has led the country since the ouster of Bashar Assad in December. Since the new Syrian government came to power, Turkish officials have been involved with the transition, seeing it as a chance to expand their influence over a key country in the region.

But the Kurds in Syria have been a stumbling block. The US allied with the Kurds’ Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – based in the north of the country – years ago to fight Islamic State. However, Turkey over the past year has attacked and forced their retreat before occupying parts of their territory. Now Turkey wants the Syrian Kurds’ militias, including the SDF and the People’s Protection Units (YPG) to disarm.

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa wants to integrate these units into Syria’s new army but the Syrian Kurds have pushed for autonomy, angering al-Sharaa. Recently, he held a “national dialogue” on the future of the country with all minority groups represented at the conference – except the Kurds.

The US, meanwhile, has wanted to protect its allies in the SDF to allow them to continue to fight the remnants of Islamic State.

The peace, Turkey hopes, will neutralize the Kurds in Syria. Already the leader of the SDF Mazloum Abdi said his group would disarm: “This historic announcement is an opportunity to build peace and a key to opening correct and constructive relations in the region.”

Meanwhile, Turkey hopes the peace will undercut Israel’s outreach to the Syrian Kurds and unify Turkey and Erdoğan’s hold over Syria. At the same time, Turkey hopes its push for peace will sideline the elements of the PKK in Iraq – Turkey already has a good relationship with the Kurdish leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The biggest obstacle to this goal – and Turkey’s expansion over Kurdish regions outside of its borders – was the United States. The new peace would take care of that.

Although it’s early in the peace process, after Öcalan call, Kurds across Turkey and Syria took to the streets in celebration, with many shocked because they never expected to see such a day.

“This is the (turning) point of history and it is a positive one,” Sırrı Süreyya Önder of the (DEM) party told the Guardian. “We are here with a compass to find a possible route out of these dark, chaotic days.”