The King’s Gambit

Moldovan police recently foiled an “unprecedented” Russian plot to meddle in the East European country’s presidential elections and a national referendum to join the European Union scheduled for Oct. 20. The pro-European president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, said the police raided numerous locations where they discovered $15 million that they allege Russia was using to buy 100,000 votes, the Moscow Times reported.

Police have also said that Russian gangs have damaged government buildings in an effort to destabilize the democratic process, Euronews wrote. Vandals spraypainted the country’s Supreme Court, the state-run broadcaster, and the Ministry for Labor and Social Protection, for example.

And on Thursday, Moldovan security officials said that several hundred Moldovan citizens were trained in Russia, Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina to incite street movements aimed at overthrowing the constitutional order, Romanian Insider reported.

It is clear why Russia would make such an illicit investment in destabilizing the country. Moldova straddles the dividing line between the US and Europe-dominated West and the East, where Russia is now reasserting its sphere of influence. Strategically, Moldova sits between war-torn Ukraine, which Russia invaded more than two years ago, and EU-member Romania. Culturally, it is a former Soviet republic where the citizens mainly speak a version of Romanian.

Politically, Moldova is at a crossroads, too, with this election underscoring whether the Kremlin is deepening or losing control over its former satellite states – as highlighted by the recent headline of a Center for European Policy Analysis report: “Moldova – Time to Choose Moscow or Brussels.”

“Moldova’s election and referendum will determine whether it cements its path to Europe or falls back under Moscow’s shadow,” CEPA wrote.

Polls forecast that Moldovan voters will opt for the West, the Center for Strategic and International Studies found. Most want to join the EU and most Moldovans trust Sandu. It’s easy to see why. For example, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently visited the country to campaign for the pro-EU vote, Swissinfo reported. She also pledged almost $2 billion in economic support for the country of 2.5 million people.

Sandu is bullish and principled. She has been outspoken in her condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. She recently declined to even participate in a debate with a challenger candidate, having accused him of being in the pocket of Russian political, business and criminal gang interests, Euractiv wrote, and dismissing such politicians as “non-valid.”

Meanwhile, recent polls show Sandhu taking roughly a quarter of first-round votes, the remainder divided between 10 other candidates. She will likely run against former prosecutor general Alexander Stoianoglo, who is backed by pro-Russian parties, in the second round.

Still, many Moldovans still see Russia as an important economic partner, explained the Netherlands Institute of International Relations. People in this camp often view neutrality as their country’s best bet in quietening Russia while gaining the benefits of proximity to the EU.

That’s because many people in the country, regardless of political affiliation, worry about what happens in Transdniestria, the Russian-speaking, Kremlin-backed breakaway region of Moldova,

Official broadcasters in the separatist Transdniestria region released footage of new military training centers. That follows an appeal by Russian speakers in the country to Russian President Vladimir Putin to “protect” ethnic Russians here, similarly to his promises to protect Russians in Ukraine.

According to Peter Apps, an analyst writing in Reuters, had Russia won its war in Ukraine, it’s highly likely it would have pushed through Ukraine’s western border to link up with the Russian so-called “peacekeeping” force occupying Transdniestria since 1991, possibly then annexing Moldova itself in its entirety.

“That now looks much less likely – when the (pro-Russian) authorities in Transdniestria publicly called for aid from Russia earlier in the year, nothing obvious was forthcoming,” he wrote. “But whatever happens at this election, both the Kremlin and (pro-Russian Moldovan exile Ilan) Shor probably will have a longer game in mind. How that plays out might yet have global implications.”