When Heads Grow Back: In Israel and Iran’s Fight, an Ending Is Hard to Write.

When Israel struck Iranian targets early Friday, its aim was to cut off “the head of the snake.”  

“Iran is more determined than ever to realize its vision of destroying Israel,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz told top Israeli military officials ahead of the initial air strikes on Iran. “We are at a critical juncture – if we miss it, we will have no way to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons that threaten our existence. We have dealt with Iran’s proxies over the past year and a half, but now we are dealing with the head of the snake itself.”  

But like the mythological Lernaean Hydra, analysts say Iran can grow back its head after it’s severed. As a result, underestimating Iran could have devastating consequences. And Israel, they add, doesn’t have a plan for “the day after.” 

“Israel should have thought this through months ago,” said Thomas Warrick of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and a former US counter-terrorism official, referring to a post-strike plan. But it’s clear it hasn’t. 

So far, Israel and Iran have been trading missile and drone strikes for days. Israel initially attacked around 80 targets, including Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. It also killed senior military commanders, nuclear scientists, and other top officials key to Iran’s weapons program and defense, including the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces, the leader of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the head of Iran’s emergency command. By Sunday, it widened its targets to include gas fields, fuel depots, airports, and other energy, transport, and industrial infrastructure. 

In Iran, more than 224 people have died in the conflict to date, with more than 1,200 injured.  

Iran has responded with hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones, striking residential areas and critical infrastructure across Israel. While Israel’s defense systems have kept most of the missiles and drones from doing damage, it hasn’t prevented all of them from getting through: At least 24 people have been killed since Friday, and the strikes have also heavily damaged Israel’s largest oil refinery and hit homes and businesses. 

Analysts say it’s likely Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chose to attack Iran now because he believed the country was particularly vulnerable: Its proxies in Lebanon and Syria have been weakened over the past 18 months – in Hezbollah’s case due to Israel’s attacks on the group – while in Syria, regime change lost Iran a key ally.  

At the same time, Israel was worried that American diplomatic overtures to Iran would allow the country to continue its nuclear program. The US and Iran were scheduled to meet for talks on Sunday in Oman, which were canceled after Iran pulled out due to the fighting with Israel.  

Meanwhile, analysts also point to Israel’s wider goal: Regime change. On Friday, Netanyahu spoke directly to Iranians when he said in a televised message that, “This is your opportunity to stand up and let your voices be heard.”  

Meanwhile, Iranian officials countered that they were left with no choice but to fight Israel, whose attacks were a “cowardly miscalculation” and “a sign of fear of our great nation.” 

“Iran has never initiated a war but will not remain silent in the face of aggression,” said Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani, following Israeli strikes on Iran.  

“Without exaggeration, we are in a state of war, a war that has been imposed on us… We did not want war and tried to prevent it,” she added.  

Now, Israel intends to continue its strikes on Iran for at least two weeks. If it does, that means Iran will likely continue its attacks, too. Iran may be weakened but it is by no means powerless, analysts say. It has a well-developed arsenal and military, and relationships with terror groups such as al Qaeda, especially in Yemen, where groups such as the Houthis have been attacking Israel since October 2023, and in Iraq with pro-Iranian militias such as Kata’ib Hezbollah. 

As a result, what happens next is anyone’s guess. Some warn of an all-out war breaking out between Israel and Iran, and possibly dragging in other countries in the region, wrote the BBC. Others say if Iran’s regime falls, it could leave a dangerous vacuum in the region. Meanwhile, the economic effects of the conflict are already reverberating around the globe, with oil prices spiking sharply after Israel’s attack. Analysts worry about a global economic shock at a time when most countries continue to grapple with the aftershocks of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.  

The wild card in this conflict is the United States. Long a staunch ally of Israel, it says it is not involved in the attacks on Iran. Still, according to Axios, the US is helping Israel defend itself against Iranian missiles. As a result, Iran has pledged retaliation against third parties who help Israel. The US has warned Iran, however, not to target US citizens, bases, or infrastructure in the region. “The consequences for Iran would be dire,” McCoy Pitt, a state department official, told a United Nations Security Council meeting Friday. 

Analysts warn that there is a likelihood of the US being dragged into the conflict, especially as military experts say it’s impossible to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities without US help.  

“Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities was in direct defiance of (US President Donald) Trump’s call for caution and negotiation,” said Richard LeBaron of the Atlantic Council, who has served as a diplomat in Israel and Kuwait. “The question now is not whether, but how, the United States will be dragged into a war it doesn’t want, and that Gulf states fear.” 

Meanwhile, some say Netanyahu’s motivation for attacking Iran was to stay in power after his government nearly collapsed last week and to “rescue” his legacy from his failure to stop Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, that killed more than 1,200 Israelis. “But there is a danger of overreach,” wrote the Economist. “Netanyahu may have to settle for a strike that will neuter the Iranian nuclear threat for a few more years but set up a future conflagration.”

That means, as columnist David Ignatius noted in the Washington Post, that the conflict between the two longtime enemies won’t end anytime soon: “As many decades have taught the United States and Israel both, conflicts with Iran are easy to start and hard to end.”