Mix and Match
NEED TO KNOW
Mix and Match
TURKEY
Turkey has always straddled Europe and Asia. Reflecting that geopolitical reality, the country is now moving to mix its allegiances and capabilities as it pursues its new strategy of so-called strategic autonomy.
“In a period when our region is constantly on edge, establishing new equations in foreign policy is not just a choice but a necessity for Turkey,” said President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently in a speech, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Erdoğan’s next moves don’t necessarily need to be peaceful or stabilizing, however, at least from a Western point of view. Erdoğan and his conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) have dominated Turkish politics for more than 20 years. Still, elections earlier this year were a shock: The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), surpassed Erdoğan’s AKP on a national scale, capturing 38 percent of the vote and shifting local power dynamics – also outside of urban areas that made up the opposition’s traditional base, the Conversation wrote.
Now, as Turkish politicians prepare for the end of Erdoğan’s tenure in 2028 when new presidential elections are held, the party is likely to consolidate power further while pursuing more aggressive policies abroad, argued World Politics Review.
Such foreign commitments – like Turkish involvement in the Syrian Civil War – serve to empower the government, render the elimination of dissidents easier, declare emergency powers, and otherwise eat away at democratic institutions and the rule of law, argued War on the Rocks.
Turkey, for example, recently asked to join the genocide case against Israel being considered by the International Court of Justice in the Hague, Netherlands, the Associated Press reported. “Emboldened by the impunity for its crimes, Israel is killing more and more innocent Palestinians every day,” posted the Turkish foreign minister on X.
The move was an indicator of Turkey’s interest in joining the so-called BRIC nations, added Bloomberg. The BRICs – named after its founding nations Brazil, Russia, India, and China but now including many other countries – represent a non-Western bloc, a counterweight to American, European, and other Western forces in a new multi-polar world order, explained Deutsche Welle.
Turkey is still a member of NATO, though, putting it in the Western camp allied against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression in Ukraine. Ultimately, wrote Foreign Policy magazine, Turkey is attempting to maintain a balancing act between good relations with the West and forging new alliances and opportunities with new coalitions like BRICs – for example, Erdoğan recently attended the BRICS summit.
Erdoğan is happy to mix and match his allegiances on different levels of the game of chess he is playing. Turkey and Russia have expanded tourism and commerce along their Black Sea coasts since Russia invaded Ukraine more than two years ago, for instance, reported Reuters. At the same time, Turkey officially opposes the invasion and has provided Ukraine with attack drones.
Meanwhile, even as Erdoğan has exerted influence or deployed forces in northern Syria, Libya and elsewhere, he has moved to mend fences with Egypt, too, Voice of America wrote.
The Turkish leader has reached new diplomatic and commercial deals with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, too, wrote World Politics Review. Currently, Turkey and the Gulf Cooperation Council are working on a free-trade agreement, which, if finalized, would create one of the world’s largest free-trade areas, measured in market value, at $2.4 trillion.
This push to mend fences, create alliances, and, critically, generate trade and investment, is not coming quickly enough for Turkey’s economy, which has been “on the brink” for the past year, with high-double-digit inflation and low growth, the Financial Times wrote. As a result, the business community is “running out of patience.”
For example, this summer, restaurants at usually bustling tourist hotspots in Turkey were half-empty after inflation reached 91 percent, noted Fortune. “(This sent) tourists and locals flocking to neighboring Greece.”
THE WORLD, BRIEFLY
A Slap
JAPAN
Japanese voters delivered a sharp rebuke to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Sunday’s election, drastically reducing its total of parliamentary seats in a stunning electoral shift for a party that has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, and casting one of the world’s largest economies into a period of rare political instability, CNN reported.
With all votes counted as of Monday, the LDP and its coalition partner, Komeito, secured only 215 of the 465 seats in Japan’s House of Representatives, falling short of the 233-seat majority needed to govern.
The LDP alone captured 191 seats, a sharp decline from its pre-election standing of 247 and its worst result since 2009.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba – who took office on Oct. 1 and had called the snap election to consolidate his position – called the election outcome an “extremely harsh judgment” by voters.
Ishiba said he would not step down, promising “severe internal reforms” within the LDP and major changes in political funding practices, according to Al Jazeera.
Meanwhile, voters gave a major boost to the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) which increased its seats from 96 to 148.
The results underscored public anger over high inflation, rising living costs and a major political funding scandal, which drove much of the opposition’s momentum.
The scandal involved undocumented funds and alleged kickbacks, which damaged the LDP’s credibility. Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, had tried to mitigate the fallout by replacing cabinet ministers and dissolving certain party factions but ultimately announced he would not run for reelection amid widespread public discontent.
Ishiba’s attempt to distance himself from the scandal was seen as insufficient by many voters, who opted instead to back opposition candidates.
The LDP now faces difficult choices: It could attempt to form a minority government, or it might seek alliances with smaller parties to regain a majority.
Still, analysts warned of internal divisions within the party. Ishiba’s outspoken style has made him powerful enemies among traditional LDP factions.
Fists and Bullets
BOLIVIA
Former Bolivian President Evo Morales accused the government of incumbent President Luis Arce of attempting to assassinate him Sunday, further heightening tensions in the country that were already running high as a result of a feud between the current leader and his popular predecessor, Bloomberg reported.
Morales said he was heading to a radio station in Cochabamba in central Bolivia, where he hosts his weekend radio show, when two vehicles intercepted his car and “four hooded officers dressed in black with weapons in their hands got out and began to shoot,” CNN reported.
Morales claimed that fourteen bullets hit his car, injuring his driver, and missing him by “centimeters.” A video Morales posted on social media appeared to show at least two bullet holes in the car’s windshield, according to BBC News.
Morales blames the government for the attack, specifically blaming Arce and two government ministers, according to his Instagram account.
In a statement on X, Arce condemned political violence, denied the government’s involvement and ordered an “immediate and thorough investigation” of the shooting including the possibility of a “self-attack” staged by Morales.
Tensions between Morales and Arce have been simmering in the South American country over the past year, leading to regular protests, violent clashes with police, blockades of major roads and a coup attempt this summer.
Both men belong to the governing Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) party. But their relationship became acrimonious after both announced their intention to run as the MAS party’s candidate in the 2025 presidential election.
Morales, who was president from 2006 to 2019 when he resigned following allegations of vote-rigging, is facing multiple investigations including for statutory rape and human trafficking, allegations which he says are politically motivated.
Staying the Course
LITHUANIA
Lithuania’s center-left Social Democrats won Sunday’s parliamentary runoff elections, defeating the center-right ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, in a contest that highlighted national security and economic concerns amid heightened regional tensions with neighboring Russia, the Associated Press reported.
Results showed that the Social Democrats, led by Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, won 52 seats in the 141-seat Seimas, while Šimonytė’s Homeland Union won only 28 seats.
The Social Democrats are expected to form a coalition government with the Democratic Union, the Lithuanian Farmers party, and the Greens Union to secure a slim 74-seat majority.
In her concession speech, Šimonytė acknowledged the election reflected Lithuania’s historic trend of shifting political preferences every four years. The Homeland Union had faced criticism over pandemic restrictions and economic hardship during the Covid-19 lockdowns.
The outgoing administration also came under scrutiny for its response to a surge of migrants arriving via Belarus, which Lithuania says is the result of an attempt by Belarus and Russia to destabilize Lithuania.
Analysts said there will not be any major changes in the Baltic nation’s foreign policy, adding that Lithuania will maintain its membership and support of the European Union and NATO.
Blinkevičiūtė – whose campaign focused on economic reform and shoring up social services – reaffirmed Lithuania’s commitment to its security policy, pledging to maintain high defense spending amid Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, the Guardian wrote.
The country currently allocates 3 percent of its gross domestic product to defense. Blinkevičiūtė promised to raise this amount to at least 3.5 percent.
Meanwhile, the Social Democrats have ruled out any collaboration with the nationalist Nemunas Dawn party, which won 20 seats and is led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis, who stepped down earlier this year following an uproar over antisemitic comments.
Still, some political observers cautioned that the upcoming three-party coalition may prove too fragile to last without support from Nemunas Dawn.
DISCOVERIES
Lines in the Desert
In Peru’s Nazca desert, hundreds of ancient geoglyphs are etched into the ground, depicting creatures from the natural world and figments of ancient man’s imagination.
These giant geoglyphs known as the “Nazca lines” are carved into hillsides and plains to create “negative” images, and date from 200 B.C. to A.D. 500, to a time when the Nazca people inhabited the region, according to Live Science.
Last month, a team of researchers from the Japanese University of Yamagata’s Nazca Institute, reported in a new study that they had uncovered 303 new geoglyphs, almost doubling the number of known geoglyphs.
The images of parrots, cats, monkeys, decapitated heads, and killer whales were discovered with the help of AI near the Nazca lines, which are classified as a UNESCO World Heritage site.
The figures, dating back to 200 BC and smaller than those previously found, have given archeologists a new understanding of the transition of the region’s earlier Paracas culture to the Nazcas.
“We can say that these geoglyphs were made by humans for humans, they often show scenes from everyday life,” Johny Isla, Peru’s chief archaeologist for the Nazca Lines, told the Guardian. “Whereas the geoglyphs of the Nazca period are gigantic figures made on mostly flat surfaces to be seen by their gods.”
The new geoglyphs were discovered using AI and low-flying drones. It took the researchers just six months using the new tools, whereas it took a century to uncover the Nazca lines. “The use of AI in research has allowed us to map the distribution of geoglyphs more quickly and accurately,” said archeologist Masato Sakai of Yamagata University.
The utilized AI model was able to spot the smaller geoglyphs that were harder to see from the naked eye and analyze geospatial data collected by the drones to identify areas where the geoglyphs could be found.
Researchers said they are certain that there are more geoglyphs hidden in the ground, waiting to be discovered, estimating up to 250 more remain to be found, reported CNN. The researchers added that the use of AI was a “game changer.”
“AI is great, but humans are still needed,” Amina Jambajantsan, a researcher at the Max Planck Institute in Germany, who wasn’t involved in the Nazca research but uses AI in her archeological work, told CNN.
She added that AI has the potential to make huge contributions to archaeology but the models need improvement: “The problem is archeologists don’t know how to build a machine learning model and data scientists, typically, are not really interested in archeology because they can get much more money elsewhere.”